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Security and insecurity. Global security policy perspectives for 2035

Uncertainty shapes human existence. Although political, economic and social decisions are con-stantly subject to uncertainty, they nevertheless must be made on the basis of well-founded as-sumptions. Therefore, a large number of risk analysts and futurologists, strategy and planning departments, think tanks, etc., are dedicated to rationalizing future decisions and dealing with the environment, the players involved and the perspectives. In the area of security policy, where the key task of the state is to guarantee the safety of its citizens both internally and externally, the planning horizon is nevertheless often determined by the demands of everyday politics and the fixation on election cycles. Meanwhile, long-term developments and trends as well as the state’s dependency on developments in other parts of the world are pushed into the background.

The working group takes a systematic approach to investigating the opportunities and limitations involved in analyzing future developments in security policy. Certain developments are more likely to become a reality than others. Although a simple continuation of existing trends can often be noted in retrospect, it is just as important to think systematically about potential disruptions and rifts that could render such simple extrapolation entirely obsolete. Only those who understand the present and can gauge possible discontinuities as well as shifts in the significance of key variables are in a position to allow their present actions to be guided by a broader understanding of the future.

The aim of the working group is to look into long-term developments, draft a statement on expectations, important trends and possible discontinuities and then use it to extract a set of clearly defined recommendations for policymakers and the public.

Those with well-informed notions of changes in the security situation and the security policy per-spectives of the “World in 2035” are well equipped to meet the challenges of both the present and the future. The key objective here is to shift the attention away from short-term problems on to long-term developments, to raise awareness of them and to initiate discussion and decisionmaking processes on key security policy challenges.

Institutions

  • German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina
  • Union of German Academies of Sciences and Humanities (responsible)
  • German National Academof Science and Technology acatech

Spokesperson of the Working Group

Prof. Dr. Cord Jakobeit, Programmbereich Politikwissenschaft, Universität Hamburg

Members of the Working Group

  • Prof. Dr. Eva Barlösius, Institut für Soziologie, Leibniz-Universität Hannover
  • Prof. Dr. Michael Brzoska, Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik, Universität Hamburg
  • Prof. Dr. Petra Dobner, Institut für Politikwissenschaft und Japanologie, Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg
  • Prof. Dr. Armin Grunwald, Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie
  • Prof. Dr. Thomas Jäger, Institut für Politische Wissenschaft und Europäische Fragen, Universität zu Köln
  • Oberst a.D. Roland Kaestner, Institut für strategische Zukunftsanalyse, Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker Stiftung
  • Prof. Dr. Sebastian Graf von Kielmansegg, Institut für Öffentliches Wirtschaftsrecht, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
  • Prof. Dr. Hermann Kreutzmann, Institut für Geographische Wissenschaften, Freie Universität Berlin
  • Dr. Axel Krohn, Führungsakademie der Bundeswehr, Hamburg
  • Prof. Dr. Herfried Münkler, Institut für Sozialwissenschaften, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
  • Prof. Dr. Claudia Neu, Lehrstuhl für Soziologie Ländlicher Räume, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen und Fachgebiet Soziologie Ländlicher Räume, Universität Kassel
  • Prof. Dr. Götz Neuneck, Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik, Universität Hamburg
  • Prof. Dr. Kerstin Odendahl, Walther-Schücking-Institut für Internationales Recht, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
  • Prof. Dr. Stefan Oeter, Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft, Universität Hamburg
  • Prof. Dr. Jürgen Oßenbrügge, Institut für Geographie, Universität Hamburg
  • Prof. Dr. Jürgen Scheffran, Institut für Geographie, Universität Hamburg
  • Prof. Dr. Axel Schildt, Forschungsstelle für Zeitgeschichte in Hamburg und Historisches Seminar, Universität Hamburg
  • Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller, Fachbereich Erziehungswissenschaft und Psychologie, Freie Universität Berlin und Z_punkt, Köln
  • Jörn Thießen, Führungsakademie der Bundeswehr, Hamburg
  • Prof. Dr. Klaus Thoma, Fraunhofer-Instituts für Kurzzeitdynamik, „Ernst-Mach-Institut“, Freiburg
  • Prof. Dr. Andreas Wirsching, Institut für Zeitgeschichte, München
  • Thomas Wrießnig, Bundesakademie für Sicherheitspolitik, Berlin

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Elmar König

Head of Department Science – Policy – Society, Head of Berlin Office

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