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Security and insecurity. Global security policy perspectives for 2035

Uncertainty is a fundamental aspect of human existence. In politics, economics and civil society, decisions constantly have to be made that are based not on certainty, but on sound assumptions. This is why a large number of risk analysts, futurologists, strategy and planning departments, think tanks, etc. dedicate themselves to the task of rationalising decisions for the future and analysing contexts, actors and perspectives. In the field of security policy, where the key task of the state is to guarantee the safety of its citizens both internally and externally, the planning horizon is nevertheless often determined by the demands of everyday politics and a fixation on election cycles. Meanwhile, long-term developments and trends as well as the state’s dependency on developments in other parts of the world are side-lined.

The working group takes a systematic approach to investigating the opportunities and limitations involved in analysing future developments in security policy. Certain developments are more likely to become a reality than others. And although it is often the case that seen in retrospect, a simple continuation of existing trends did indeed occur, it is just as important to think systematically about potential disruptions and rifts that could render such simple extrapolation entirely obsolete. Only those who understand the present and can gauge possible discontinuities as well as shifts in the significance of key variables are in a position to allow their present actions to be guided by a fuller understanding of the future.

The aim of the working group is to look into long-term developments, draft a statement on expectations, important trends and possible discontinuities and use them to extract a set of clearly defined recommendations for policymakers and the public.
Those with well-informed notions of changes in the security situation and of the security policy perspectives of the “World in 2035” are better equipped to tackle the challenges of both the present and the future. The key objective here is to shift attention away from short-term problems and onto long-term developments, to increase awareness of these developments, and to initiate discussion and decision-making processes on central security policy challenges.

Institutions

  • German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina
  • Union of German Academies of Sciences and Humanities (responsible)
  • German National Academof Science and Technology acatech

Spokesperson of the Working Group

Prof. Dr. Cord Jakobeit, Programmbereich Politikwissenschaft, Universität Hamburg

Members of the Working Group

  • Prof. Dr. Eva Barlösius, Institut für Soziologie, Leibniz-Universität Hannover
  • Prof. Dr. Michael Brzoska, Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik, Universität Hamburg
  • Prof. Dr. Petra Dobner, Institut für Politikwissenschaft und Japanologie, Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg
  • Prof. Dr. Armin Grunwald, Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie
  • Prof. Dr. Thomas Jäger, Institut für Politische Wissenschaft und Europäische Fragen, Universität zu Köln
  • Oberst a.D. Roland Kaestner, Institut für strategische Zukunftsanalyse, Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker Stiftung
  • Prof. Dr. Sebastian Graf von Kielmansegg, Institut für Öffentliches Wirtschaftsrecht, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
  • Prof. Dr. Hermann Kreutzmann, Institut für Geographische Wissenschaften, Freie Universität Berlin
  • Dr. Axel Krohn, Führungsakademie der Bundeswehr, Hamburg
  • Prof. Dr. Herfried Münkler, Institut für Sozialwissenschaften, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
  • Prof. Dr. Claudia Neu, Lehrstuhl für Soziologie Ländlicher Räume, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen und Fachgebiet Soziologie Ländlicher Räume, Universität Kassel
  • Prof. Dr. Götz Neuneck, Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik, Universität Hamburg
  • Prof. Dr. Kerstin Odendahl, Walther-Schücking-Institut für Internationales Recht, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
  • Prof. Dr. Stefan Oeter, Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft, Universität Hamburg
  • Prof. Dr. Jürgen Oßenbrügge, Institut für Geographie, Universität Hamburg
  • Prof. Dr. Jürgen Scheffran, Institut für Geographie, Universität Hamburg
  • Prof. Dr. Axel Schildt, Forschungsstelle für Zeitgeschichte in Hamburg und Historisches Seminar, Universität Hamburg
  • Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller, Fachbereich Erziehungswissenschaft und Psychologie, Freie Universität Berlin und Z_punkt, Köln
  • Jörn Thießen, Führungsakademie der Bundeswehr, Hamburg
  • Prof. Dr. Klaus Thoma, Fraunhofer-Instituts für Kurzzeitdynamik, „Ernst-Mach-Institut“, Freiburg
  • Prof. Dr. Andreas Wirsching, Institut für Zeitgeschichte, München
  • Thomas Wrießnig, Bundesakademie für Sicherheitspolitik, Berlin

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