Prof. Dr. Maria Carla Galavotti

Research Priorities: Philosophy of science, probability theory, scientific evidence, subjectivism, subjective theory, causality, probabilistic causality
Maria Carla Galavotti is an Italian philosopher of science. She focuses, above all, on aspects relating to probability and statistics. In her view, these areas have not only a mathematical, but also a philosophical aspect, the latter of which became a key focus of her work. She is also interested in the nature and limits of scientific evidence, scientific explanation and prediction.
Concepts such as probability play a role in many research areas, ranging from statistics, climatology, and biology, to economics and philosophy. However, various concepts of probability are in conflict with each other. The philosophical debates centre around the question of whether probability is a measurable quantity or whether it reflects degrees of belief. The question of which “realities” are modelled by various concepts of probability is also a topic of debate. Maria Carla Galavotti examines these questions in her research. The answers she discovers are, on the one hand, of theoretical interest. On the other hand, various theories of probability have consequences for issues such as risk analysis and safety.
Maria Carla Galavotti has described the distinctive features of the major interpretations of probability, including the classical theory of Pierre Simon de Laplace, frequentism, propensionism, logicism, and subjectivism. The philosopher has examined the last of these topics and its origins particularly closely. According to this way of thinking, probability reflects a subjective degree of belief – in other words, a person’s confidence in a particular thing. Galavotti has given particular attention to two representatives of this theory: the British mathematician and logician Frank Ramsey (1903 - 1930) and the Italian mathematician Bruno de Finetti (1906 - 1985).
Another focus of her work is “scientific explanation”, particularly in medical and criminal trials. She questions the nature and limits of these explanations and the relationship to prediction and causality. The concept of causality is very important in scientific research. For example, a disease can be cured once its cause has been discovered. Maria Carla Galavotti looks at probabilistic causality, according to which causes change the probability of their effects. This is linked to questions about the role of scientific laws as well as the possibilities and limits of scientific explanation.