The Covid-19 Pandemic: Basic Insights from Basic Mathematical Models (2022)

During the Covid-19 pandemic, scientists have been describing the spread of the virus with different kinds of theoretical models. While some of these models are challenging to understand in detail, they typically are based on a core of a few classical epidemiological models that are also accessible to non-experts. In this article, we discuss several of these classical models and highlight important conclusions that can be drawn from them. We are convinced that an understanding of these models can crucially contribute to the public acceptance of governmental interventions and to more informed discussions about upcoming decisions. The media often depicts mathematical models as complicated black boxes that only a few experts can master. While the development and analysis of mathematical models indeed requires the expertise of specialists, we believe that our society can understand many aspects of these models and of the theoretical basics of infectious disease dynamics.