The Impacts of the War in Ukraine on Energy Prices and Security of Supply in Europe? (2022)
Published by the German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina, acatech – National Academy of Science and Engineering and the Union of the German Academies of Sciences and Humanities
Discussion Paper of the Academies’ Project “Energy Systems of the Future” (ESYS)
- Natural Gas
- Energy Policy
This is a watershed moment for Germany’s and Europe’s energy supply. Russia’s war on Ukraine has highlighted the dangers of relying on imports from individual nations to guarantee security of supply.
The suspension of Russian energy imports would pose extremely serious challenges for Germany and the EU. In the discussion paper “The Impacts of the War in Ukraine on Energy Prices and Security of Supply in Europe”, experts from the Academies’ Project “Energy Systems of the Future” (ESYS) explore the implications of a partial or total suspension of Russian energy exports to Europe.
- If Russian gas imports are suspended in the next few months, Europe may be unable to meet around 25% of peak winter demand for gas (based on 2021 figures).
- This shortfall is due to a lack of transmission infrastructure such as pipeline capacity and LNG terminals. The supply shortfall can be closed by 2025 if gas consumption is reduced by 20% across Europe and the gas infrastructure is expanded.
- Energy prices in Europe are likely to remain high in the medium to long term.
- It will therefore be necessary to ensure that the energy supply is socially equitable and take measures to safeguard industrial competitiveness.
- To maintain security of supply in Europe, it will be necessary to adopt a pan-European strategy for expanding and operating the gas infrastructure, accompanied by a joint European gas procurement policy.
- Actions to improve energy efficiency and accelerate the growth of renewables should be prioritised. Both of these measures also help to keep energy prices in check.